Discussion

The model results show that a major failure of a nuclear reactor sited in Turkey could be a disaster for Turkey and many countries in the region. The modelling results indicate that Turkey and the countries of the middle East would be at greatest risk from a release of radioactivity from the proposed nuclear power reactors located near Akkuyu, Turkey. Countries of the middle east are nearly always at substantial risk whereas Western Europe always have a much lower risk. During the winter months Westerlies prevail taking air masses from Southern Turkey to Cyprus, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Saudia Arabia and the gulf states, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. During the summer months the NE trade winds dominate with air masses travelling from Southern Turkey towards the middle East and North Africa including countries such as Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Libya, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states.

It should be noted that at all times during the year a release of radioactive gas is highly likely to impact countries other than Turkey. Turkey is of course at greatest risk throughout the year. This study employed one year of meteorological data derived from ECMWF by Trenberth (1992) for the year 1993. The conclusions are therefore dependent on this data set. It is clear however that the 1993 data set does not represent an unusual wind flow pattern. It is in good agreement with the long term average wind patterns (Trenberth 1992 ). Further investigations with each available year of meteorological data from 1980-1995 would help refine these estimates.

Again, without prior knowledge of the nature of an actual release, and the prevailing meteorological conditions at the time, the results presented here can only be considered to represent the most likely conditions and not what may take place during an actual release. To facilitate an early warning of the arrival of radioactive fallout a high resolution regional meteorological forecasting and chemistry model would need to be developed if reliable estimates of the dispersion of a cloud of radioactive gas are to be obtained.

The risk analysis demonstrates that the siting of nuclear power reactors is a potential hazard for the entire region, not just Turkey. Countries in the Middle East, the former USSR and Africa, should be consulted with regard to the potential siting and operation of nuclear power reactors in Turkey. Clearly alternative energy sources should be explored.

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