Introduction.

Indonesia is currently planning to build a number of nuclear power generators the first of which is to be located on Java near Mount Muria. This study uses the Australian National University Chemical Transport Model (ANU-CTM) to investigate the risk, that in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant which resulted in the release of a radioactive gas, it would impact Australia and other countries in the region.

The study does not attempt to determine the likelihood of whether such an accident is possible or even probable. The approach taken in this study was to simulate the release of a unit amount of tracer, which in this case would represent a radioactive gas, and examines the proportion remaining after transport downwind from the point of release. Therefore this study does not reflect the result of a particular release scenario - it is more general and hopefully more useful than that - with results simply being scaled to reflect the magnitude of a potential release.

The key conclusion of the study is that Australia and many countries in the region are at high risk of receiving radioactive fallout from the potential failure of a nuclear power generator located on Java and that this risk varies substantially depending on the time during the year when the release takes place. An earlier study by Ball (1991) using simpler analysis techniques arrived at similar conclusions. This study confirms those earlier results.

Global Tracer Transport Model...

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