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An Analysis and Visualization of the Risk Associated
with the Potential Failure of Indonesian Nuclear Reactors

John Taylor,
Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies,
Australian National University.

Drew Whitehouse,
Australian National University Supercomputer Facility,


An analysis of the risk that a release of radioactive gas would reach Australia from a possible reactor failure in Java has been performed using the Australian National University Chemical Transport Model (ANU-CTM). Indonesia is about to decide whether to build its first nuclear power generator.

Model runs have demonstrated that northern Australia, including the north of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland would be at substantial risk of receiving radioactive fallout, particularly during the summer months. It is likely that the release of a radioactive gas would reach northern Australia in only a few days if a release from Java were to occur during summer.

Model runs also show that other countries in South East Asia, particularly Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand would also be at substantial risk of receiving radioactive fallout during the months from March until November. Model runs also show that Indonesia itself would be at greatest risk from the release of a radioactive gas from a potential reactor failure.

A computer visualization showing the dispersion of a tracer released from Java was prepared using meteorological data for 1993 for this study.

Copyright - Australian National University, 1996.

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