Introduction.

Turkey is currently planning to build up to ten nuclear power generators the first of which is to be located near Akkuyu on the southeast Mediterranean coast. This study uses the Australian National University Chemical Transport Model (ANU-CTM) to investigate the risk, that in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant which resulted in the release of a radioactive gas, it would impact on Turkey and on other countries in the region.

The study does not attempt to determine the likelihood of whether such an accident is possible or even probable. The approach taken in this study was to simulate the release of a unit amount of tracer, which in this case would represent a radioactive gas, and examines the proportion remaining after transport downwind from the point of release. Therefore this study does not reflect the result of a particular release scenario - it is more general and hopefully more useful than that - with results simply being scaled to reflect the magnitude of a potential release.

The key conclusion of this study is that Turkey and the countries of the middle East would be at greatest risk from a release of radioactivity from the proposed nuclear power reactors located near Akkuyu, Turkey. Countries of the middle east are nearly always at substantial risk whereas countires to the west have much lower risk. During the winter months Westerlies prevail taking air masses from Southern Turkey to Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Saudia Arabia and the gulf states, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. During the summer months the NE trade winds dominate with air masses travelling from Southern Turkey towards the middle East and North Africa including countries such as Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Libya, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states.

Global Tracer Transport Model...

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